The UK Government may be tentatively optimistic that US Vice President JD Vance can be trusted when he says that a trade deal between the two countries can be worked out. However, it will not paper over the irreversible cracks that have been created since Donald Trump decided to reveal his list of tariffs to the world. As Trump stood in the Rose Garden on April 2nd, brandishing his board that evoked a day out at the races, financial markets and global media went into meltdown. Global stock markets plummeted with commentators comparing the day’s events to those of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 or the global financial crisis of 2008. But the comparisons are wrong. The effects may have been similar but this time the cause was completely different. Unlike 2020 or 2008, the world had a warning that this would happen: Trump told us all what he was going to do—so why were we surprised?
Speaking during his successful presidential campaign in October last year, Trump determined that the word tariff is in fact the “most beautiful word”. It was seemingly an odd choice, however, for a man with an apparently limited lexicon perhaps as ever one ought not to have been too surprised. Trump has always seen politics as he sees business, a set of circumstances to be resolved by making deals and Trump has always been unequivocal that the only deals he intends to make are ones in which the US is the prime beneficiary.
Trump’s economic beliefs run contrary to global financial markets. He is implementing an isolationist philosophy in what is still a globalist world and thus the chances of his tariff plan benefitting the US economy is unlikely—particularly in the short term. The fact that Trump has rescinded his initial tariff plans for all countries bar China for the next 90 days has instilled some confidence in the stock market, but no one should assume that things are back to normal. Just as he did what he claimed he would before, he will likely do it again: the tariff plan is paused but its effects are far from over. Trump believes that he can bring manufacturing back to the US and the fact that he is prepared to double down and engage in a trade war with China, one of the largest manufacturers of cheap consumer goods for the American market is testament to the fact that he continues to hold this belief.
On the campaign trail, Trump made it clear that he believed he was capable of ending the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. That statement was met with derision and concern from many Western politicians and commentators as it suggested that securing a peace deal that assured Ukrainian sovereignty was not at the the top of Trump’s agenda. Just as with the tariffs, earlier this year, the world watched on with shock as Trump and Vance belittled and harassed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. It was shocking and it was uncomfortable but should the world have been surprised? Perhaps not. Trump promised his base that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in 24 hours during his campaign and therefore felt entitled to treat Zelensky with impunity, as he felt Zelensky was stopping Trump from achieving what he set out to. Whilst he may not have done that, his frustration at anyone who he believes is preventing him from reaching his aims will spill over into anger and aggression.
Trump is not driven by external ideologies. For example, the behaviour of Putin or Zelensky is secondary to whether or not one of them can help him get what he wants. But just because he is pragmatic at making deals with whomever, that does not mean that he doesn’t have ideological convictions. Trump has always held ideological convictions and if one listens to what he said on the campaign trail, then it isn’t hard to find evidence of them. Trump has always made it clear that he will put America first and it appears that he has conflated that idea with one of isolationism. In order for him to put his country ‘first’, he has sought not to act in the interests of the global economy.
Trump’s attention has most recently turned toward US universities as he has begun economically gutting key scientific and medical faculties across Ivy League schools. Once again this move has been met with a chorus of confusion and anger from analysts and commentators. But yet again it is people’s surprise that is the greater surprise. There may well be no logical sense to cutting Harvard funding for medical research, instead it will likely have detrimental economic, social and health effects on the American population in decades to come. But Trump does not care. His concerns are not long term and they do not adhere to the concerns of experts, institutions, journalists and analysts. Trump made it clear who his enemies were and he made it clear what his goals are. The fact that he is now acting on what he set out to do should be of no surprise to anyone.
Words by Eddie Monkman
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