Sinners or One Battle After Another? Jessie Buckley or Rose Byrne? This year’s hotly contested Oscars are coming up and I’m here to tell you who should win, who likely will win, and why.
The Big Hitters
Best Picture
Bugonia
Frankenstein
F1
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams
The real competition for Best Picture is between Sinners and One Battle After Another. Anything but either would be a true upset. The two films have swept almost all the major awards between them so far this awards season. One Battle After Another has the slight advantage, as it has collected more accolades this season and Paul Thomas Anderson is more of an established Academy darling, but I won’t be surprised if Best Picture goes to Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson cleans up in other categories. I thought 2025 was a year of impressive performances rather than overall pictures, but Marty Supreme is probably my favourite of the nominees, for its entertaining acting, production design, costuming and direction.
Who should win: Marty Supreme
Who will win: One Battle After Another
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Two of my favourite lead female performances of the year didn’t even make it to the shortlist: Julia Roberts in After The Hunt and Naomi Ackie in Mickey 17. But among nominees, this is a two-way race between Jessie Buckley and Rose Byrne and it’s Buckley’s Oscar to lose.
Who should win: Jessie Buckley
Who will win: Jessie Buckley
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle after Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
This award will almost certainly go to either Timothée Chalamet or Wagner Moura, though there is a slight chance of a surprise win from Ethan Hawke or even Michael B. Jordan. The only winner who would truly shock me would be DiCaprio. My favourite lead performance was someone that wasn’t nominated, Ṣọpẹ́ Dìrísù in My Father’s Shadow, but I absolutely enjoyed Timothee Chalamet’s too—and, if he wins, he’d break a long streak of the Oscars refusing to reward lead actors until they’re in their late 30s and 40s. Brazil’s Wagner Moura winning would also make history as the first Brazilian to win the category.
Who should win: Timothee Chalamet
Who will win: Timothee Chalamet
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Teyana Taylor, One Battle after Another
This is an incredibly stacked category this year. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas absolutely broke my heart in Sentimental Value, and Elle Fanning deservedly earned her first ever Oscar nomination. Wunmi Mosaku has a lot of momentum and is a huge part of why Sinners feels so stirring. Taylor took One Battle After Another and made it her own movie in its first 20 minutes. A Taylor acceptance speech would be legendary. Nina Hoss in Hedda was my favorite supporting actress of the year but her work has unfortunately been overlooked this awards season. Amy Madigan is a legend but I continue to be confused by how seriously people take Weapons.
Who should win: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas
Who will win: Teyana Taylor
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle after Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle after Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Another highly competitive category. Del Toro, Penn and Skarsgård have split the awards and recognitions so far this season, while Lindo was a surprising and welcome nomination. There are a number of incredible performances that were not nominated this year: Miles Caton was an essential key to making Sinners work; Josh O’Connor delivered four great performances in 2025, most colourfully in Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery; and Jacobi Jupe shone in Hamnet. Another child actor, Chibuike Marvellous Egbo, also delivered a beautiful performance in My Father’s Shadow.
Who should win: Delroy Lindo
Who will win: Stellan Skarsgård
Directing
Hamnet, Chloé Zhao
Marty Supreme, Josh Safdie
One Battle after Another, Paul Thomas Anderson
Sentimental Value, Joachim Trier
Sinners, Ryan Coogler
Paul Thomas Anderson is the strong favourite to win this category. The Academy could award Coogler, but his recent remarks on how he declined an invitation to join the Academy and does not vote in the Oscars could hurt his chances. Chloé Zhao stirred up intense emotion for me in the final act of Hamnet and for that I believe she deserves the award.
Who should win: Chloé Zhao
Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Other Categories
Casting
Hamnet, Nina Gold
Marty Supreme, Jennifer Venditti
One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
The Secret Agent, Gabriel Domingues
Sinners, Francine Maisler
Who should win: Sinners, Francine Maisler
Who will win: One Battle after Another, Cassandra Kulukundis
Cinematography
Frankenstein, Dan Laustsen
Marty Supreme, Darius Khondji
One Battle after Another, Michael Bauman
Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Train Dreams, Adolpho Veloso
Who should win: Sinners, Autumn Durald Arkapaw
Who will win: One Battle after Another, Michael Bauman
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Bugonia, Screenplay by Will Tracy
Frankenstein, Written for the Screen by Guillermo del Toro
Hamnet, Screenplay by Chloé Zhao & Maggie O’Farrell
One Battle after Another, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams, Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Who should win: Train Dreams, Screenplay by Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Who will win: One Battle after Another, Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Blue Moon, Written by Robert Kaplow
It Was Just an Accident, Written by Jafar Panahi; Script collaborators – Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
Marty Supreme, Written by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
Sentimental Value, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Sinners, Written by Ryan Coogler
Who should win: Sentimental Value, Written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier
Who will win: Sinners, Written by Ryan Coogler
Music (Original Score)
Bugonia, Jerskin Fendrix
Frankenstein, Alexandre Desplat
Hamnet, Max Richter
One Battle after Another, Jonny Greenwood
Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Who should win: Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Who will win: Sinners, Ludwig Goransson
Music (Original Song)
Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Golden from KPop Demon Hunters; Music and Lyric by EJAE, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo and Teddy Park
I Lied To You from Sinners; Music and Lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Goransson
Sweet Dreams Of Joy from Viva Verdi!; Music and Lyric by Nicholas Pike
Train Dreams from Train Dreams; Music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; Lyric by Nick Cave
Who should win: I Lied To You from Sinners
Who will win: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
International Feature Film
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirāt
Tunisia, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Who should win: Norway, Sentimental Value
Who will win: Brazil, The Secret Agent
Who should win: Brazil, The Secret Agent
Animated Feature Film
Arco, Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophie Mas and Natalie Portman
Elio, Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina and Mary Alice Drumm
KPop Demon Hunters, Maggie Kang, Chris Appelhans and Michelle L.M. Wong
Little Amélie orthe Character of Rain, Maïlys Vallade, Liane-Cho Han, Nidia Santiago and Henri Magalon
Zootopia 2, Jared Bush, Byron Howard and Yvett Merino
Who should win: Zootopia 2
Who will win: KPop Demon Hunters
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Deborah L. Scott
Frankenstein, Kate Hawley
Hamnet, Malgosia Turzanska
Marty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi
Sinners, Ruth E. Carter
Who should win: Marty Supreme, Miyako Bellizzi
Who will win: Frankenstein, Kate Hawley
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Kokuho, Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
The Smashing Machine, Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
The Ugly Stepsister, Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
Who should win: Sinners, Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
Who will win: Frankenstein, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Film Editing
F1, Stephen Mirrione
Marty Supreme, Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
One Battle after Another, Andy Jurgensen
Sentimental Value, Olivier Bugge Coutté
Sinners, Michael P. Shawver
Who should win: One Battle after Another, Andy Jurgensen
Who will win: One Battle after Another, Andy Jurgensen
Production Design
Frankenstein Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Hamnet Production Design: Fiona Crombie; Set Decoration: Alice Felton
Marty Supreme Production Design: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Adam Willis
One Battle after Another Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
Sinners Production Design: Hannah Beachler; Set Decoration: Monique Champagne
Who should win: Frankenstein Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Who will win: Frankenstein Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
Visual Effects
F1, Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
Jurassic World Rebirth, David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
The Lost Bus, Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
Sinners, Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
Who should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Who will win: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Words by Desola Kazeem
Support the Indiependent
We’re trying to raise £200 a month to help cover our operational costs. This includes our ‘Writer of the Month’ awards, where we recognise the amazing work produced by our contributor team. If you’ve enjoyed reading our site, we’d really appreciate it if you could donate to The Indiependent. Whether you can give £1 or £10, you’d be making a huge difference to our small team.